A very happy new year to you all – and in many ways it has been a good start to the new year.
The weather has been good, Hawkes Bay has never looked better and the local economy is booming.
The only cloud on the horizon is of course – the financial markets and in particular the share market.
Clearly share market investors have taken a bath in this early part of the year and it would be easy to be pessimistic about the future. But of course – from these levels – the prospects for the share market look better then they have for a long time.
Most of the selling on the New Zealand market – has come from overseas. These overseas institutions have got trouble at home and they have simply decided to sell their Australasian holdings and take their money home – hence the fall in the value of the NZ dollar as well.
They are not selective in what they sell. Look at a stock like Contact Energy. Contact has fallen back almost 30% and yet we ask ourselves – what has changed with this company and the answer is nothing. It has no worse prospects now than it did 3 months ago.
The Fisher & Paykel companies have come back and that defies logic. It was always accepted that it was the exchange rate that was holding back these companies and yet when the exchange rate moved substantially in their favour – the share price went down.
So what’s the cause of all this nonsense?
In two words – George Bush – the fellow is an idiot.
Since taking office in year 2000 America’s national debt has grown 70%. George Bush has presided over an economy that has seen a budget surplus of 2.4% of GDP at the time he came into power, turn into a budget deficit of 3.6% of GDP. That is an amazing turnaround.
Instead of spending money on education and health programmes, Bush has spent half a trillion dollars on a ridiculous war in Iraq.
Up until now it has been widely accepted that Hoover was the worst ever president of the United States – clearly Bush will now assume that mantle.
So the commercial powerhouse of the world has been run by an incompetent cowboy and the whole world suffers.
But it is certainly not all gloom and doom. There are now excellent opportunities for investment both here and in Australia that weren’t there before – and the New Zealand economy – to some extent – has a degree of insulation from America’s woes.
We just need to take positive view and try to ignore the nonsense that is coming out of the States.
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